Thursday, June 23, 2005

Why the Rebels (Terrorists) Will Lose

Every day you see some headline, some where in the MSM, about a bombing of some sort in Iraq. You see headlines screaming about the slow progress in establishing a constitution and other governmental responsibilities. (Just a note here, some one should ask the MSM how long it took America to establish her government and Constitution.) The MSM, dem/libs, leftists, terrorist appeasers and ass kissers, and assorted others, gleefully point to polls showing the American people are supporting our efforts in Iraq less and less. This constant bombardment of negative news, without any attempt to balance this with all the positive things going on Iraq, is taking a toll. The fact of the matter is, the terrorists are losing and losing big time. They are alienating the Iraqi people with their assualt on Iraqi civilians. Since the majority of these so called "insurgents" are foreign terrorists, they really do not care whom they kill. Max Boot gord into some detail as to why the "rebels" are losing in his commentary.

"Support for the insurgency is confined to a minority within a minority — a small portion of Sunni Arabs, who make up less than 20% of the population. The only prominent non-Sunni rebel, Muqtada Sadr, has quietly joined the political process. The 80% of the population that is Shiite and Kurdish is implacably opposed to the rebellion, which is why most of the terror has been confined to four of 18 provinces.

Unlike in successful guerrilla wars, the rebels in Iraq have not been able to control large chunks of "liberated" territory. The best they could do was to hold Fallouja for six months last year. Nor have they been able to stage successful large-scale attacks like the Viet Cong did. A major offensive against Abu Ghraib prison on April 2 ended without a single U.S. soldier killed or a single Iraqi prisoner freed, while an estimated 60 insurgents were slain.

The biggest weakness of the insurgency is that it is morphing from a war of national liberation into a revolutionary struggle against an elected government. That's a crucial difference. Since 1776, wars of national liberation have usually succeeded because nationalism is such a strong force. Revolutions against despots, from Czar Nicholas II to the shah of Iran, often succeed too, because there is no way to redress grievances within the political process. Successful uprisings against elected governments are much rarer because leaders with political legitimacy can more easily rally the population and accommodate aggrieved elements."

The Iraqi people spoke at the polls. Despite the violence and threats of violence, they came out in droves to vote. The Sunni minority, which boycotted the elections, has come to realize that the political process passed them by and they are now clamoring tobe involved. Democracy is not an easy road, especially after decades of repression. It will also be a very bumpy road, as the Iraqis have the successes and failures. Our own trip down the Democracy raod was not an easy one either.

"So far, progress has been rapid on the political front and not-so-rapid in the deployment of security forces, which the coalition didn't emphasize until last year. We are finally seeing the emergence of some impressive Iraqi units, such as the Wolf Brigade commandos, who pursue insurgents all over the country, and the 302nd National Guard Battalion, which has pacified Haifa Street, a onetime insurgent stronghold in Baghdad.

The biggest advantage the insurgents still have, aside from their total disdain for human life, is that they can get reinforcements from abroad to make up for their heavy losses. The coalition needs to do a better job of policing the Syrian border and pressuring Damascus to crack down on the influx of jihadis.

But even if the border gets sealed, pacifying Iraq will be a long, hard slog that will ultimately be up to the Iraqis. The U.S. needs to show a little patience. If we don't cut and run prematurely, Iraqi democracy can survive its birth pangs."

More and more intelligence on the movements and identies of the terrorist in Iraq is coming from the Iraqi people. Military operations on the Syrian border are cutting down on the number of foreign terrorists entering Iraq. For those that whine and cry about how porous the Iraqi border is and use that as an arguement that we are losing, I point them to our own porous Southern border.

It will not be tomorrow when the Iraqi people are ready to stand on their own. This is not a short or easy process. To those that gnash their teeth over our committment tothe Iraqi people, I will tell them to look at the committment this country made to Germany and Japan after World War II. I defy them to tell me that the world is not a better place because of those committments. A functioning democracy in the heart of the middle east, is one of our best hopes for continued victories in the war on terror. - Sailor

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