Monday, June 06, 2005

The Doomed Insurgency

Every day you see a plethera news items on some terrorist attack in Iraq. From the the avalanche of bad news stories on Iraq, one would think that the terrorist scum are winning. In fact, there are those that want you to believe they are winning, simply because they want these terrorists to win. Once you considered all that has happened in Iraq over the last year or so, it is quite evident that these thugs are losing and losing badly. Amir Taheri explains in his article.

"When the insurgency appeared in the summer of 2003, it based its strategy on a number of illusions. First, it thought that by killing as many Americans as possible it would undermine public opinion support for the war inside the United States. When that did not happen, the insurgency tried to terrorize as many of the allies as possible into withdrawing from Iraq. But that, too, didn't produce the desired results.

Next, the insurgency decided that killing members of Iraq's nascent army and police force could do the trick. But two years of brutal killings have failed to reduce the number of new recruits or slow the training and deployment of new units.

Next the insurgency switched to the tactic of killing Iraqi Shi'ites at random. And once that had failed, random killing was extended to Sunni Kurds and Turcomen. With the insurgency's hope of provoking sectarian wars dashed, we are now witnessing a new phase, in which even Sunni Arabs are being killed indiscriminately.

The insurgents know how to kill, but no longer know who to kill. Nor do they seem to know why they are killing.

By adopting an extremist posture, the insurgency has forced many Iraqis who, for different reasons, resent the occupation or do not like the new government, into the position of passive onlookers."

Failure after failure has been the lot of these groups trying to take control in Iraq. Of course the MSM is relentless in trying top aint the worst possible picture in Iraq, including all these supposed terrorist victories leading to chaos and a civil war. Every where these groups have taken on the US and newly emerging Iraqi militray they have gotten their asses severly kicked. Their only strategy now is to kill as many civilians as possible. That has only served to have civilians provide more intelligence to the Iraqi government.

"The insurgency may continue for many more months, if not years, in the area known as Jazirah (island), which accounts for about 10 per cent of the Iraqi territory, plus parts of Baghdad. It may continue killing large numbers of people but will not be able to stop the political process. Its history is one of a string of political failures.

Over the past two years it has failed to prevent the formation of a Governing Council, the writing of an interim constitution, the transfer of sovereignty, the holding of local and general elections and the creation of a new government. This year it will fail to prevent the writing of a new constitution, already being drafted, the referendum to get it approved, the holding of fresh parliamentary elections and the formation of a new elected government in Baghdad.

As the Arabic saying has it: The caravan will continue its journey even if the wolves howl along the way."

Note all the failures of these thugs. They have not been able to stop the democratic process from going forward in Iraq. With all their violence and threats of violence, they were not able to stop some 8 million Iraqi citizens from voting. Even those groups that sat out the elections are now coming to the realizion that they too need to be in the process. Their leadership is being decimated, many now either captured or killed. Sure some of the big fish are still on the loose, but time for them to remain on the loose is dwindling rapidly. Sometimes you just have to wonder how the MSM figures that these guys are winning. - Sailor

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